Coming off a fun two-day Opening Day, here are some quick thoughts on players who made headlines for one reason or another, followed by a short reflection now that draft season is over.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Kiermaier was one of the stars of the Rays’ Opening Day victory over the Yankees, putting up strong offensive and defensive performances. The defense may not be a surprise, since Kiermaier is widely regarded as the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but the offense shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise either.
Kiermaier was a solid fantasy producer in 2016, putting up a .246/55/12/37/21 line in only 414 plate appearances. Everything but the batting average was fairly useful and–when extrapolated out to 600 plate appearances (don’t you just wish you could always do that!)–it’s a nice-looking .246/80/17/53/30.
Kiermaier’s level of production won’t win you any leagues outright, but players like him are exactly what do win you fantasy titles–solid producers you draft in the mid-to-late rounds who outperform their ADP (his was 175 in NFBC since March 1). I’ll admit, I was a little late in noticing Kiermaier this draft season and I’m disappointed I didn’t identify his potential earlier, since I can easily see him hitting 20 home runs and stealing 30 bases, while providing solid counting stats batting second in the Rays lineup.
One of the reasons I’m optimistic about Kiermaier is the development of his approach at the plate. Since early 2016, Kiermaier has cut down on his swings at balls outside the zone and has taken a more patient approach at the plate. The result, as seen below, was an increase in his walk rate, a decrease in his swing percentage and harder contact (presumably because he waited for pitches to drive).
The increased walk rate will be music to fantasy owners’ ears, since Kiermaier already showed a propensity for stolen bases in the second half of 2016 when he swiped 15 bags in his final 67 games of the season.
Another reason for optimism is Kiermaier’s league leading infield fly ball rate of 25.0%. Yes, you read that right, it’s reason for optimism. Kiermaier’s infield fly ball rate led the league among batters with 400 or more plate appearances by a whopping 6.5% and is well above his previous rates of about 14%. I would expect some regression toward his previous seasons, which should help support a BABIP that better reflects his speed and not the .276 he posted in 2016.
I expect Kiermaier to produce a batting average that doesn’t hurt you, solid contributions in counting stats and home runs and significant contributions in steals this season. That makes him a great value for a mid-round pick.
Andrew Toles, OF, LA Dodgers
Toles surprised a lot of people, particularly fantasy owners, when he was named the leadoff hitter in a fairly potent Dodgers lineup. He doesn’t necessarily fit the mold of a traditional leadoff hitter, since his plate discipline leaves something to be desired. Last season Toles swung at 38.7% of pitches outside the zone and his 7.0% walk rate was the highest he produced across any level of baseball, despite the poor plate skills.
Where Toles does excel is hitting the ball hard in the air, where he packed a punch with a 37.5% hard hit rate on fly balls and only a 5.6% soft hit rate on line drives. Toles’ problem is that he didn’t hit the ball in the air nearly enough, with a 1.63 ground ball to fly ball rate. Unfortunately, Toles also pulled most of his ground balls and only hit 10.3% to the opposite field. As a result, his .333 BABIP on ground balls was one of the reasons for an elevated BABIP of .386. Both those numbers should regress, as seen by his .312 xBABIP according to xStats.org.
Toles should be able to maintain a league average or above batting average, given his speed, the ground ball approach (higher BABIP, lower damage) and my expectations that his strikeout rate will decrease at least slightly, since he posted strikeout rates well-below 20% throughout his minor-league career. As a result, I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit in the .280 range.
If Toles stays atop the Dodgers lineup and approaches 600 plate appearances–a big if, since he may be platooned against lefties–he should be able to put up a solid average with a lot of runs, close to 20 home runs and double digit stolen bases. For someone going 336th in NFBC drafts as the 93rd outfielder off the board, Toles’ fantasy owners should be smiling even though he took only a small part in today’s 14-3 drubbing of the Padres (2 for 5 with 1 run scored).
Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers
I already wrote that I don’t have big expectations for Odor in 2017, as he was included in one of my bold predictions (the one where I said Shin-Soo Choo would outperform him in 5×5 leagues). Of course, he responded by hitting two home runs on Monday with 5 RBIs off one of the best pitchers in the game (Corey Kluber). While some will think I’m stubborn, I still struggle to see how Odor’s approach will work long-term.
Odor’s 0.1 walk to strikeout rate (21.4% strikeout rate and 3.0% walk rate) was eighth worst in baseball in 2016 and, over the last three season, he also ranks eighth worst among batters with 1,000 or more plate appearances. In 2016, his walk rate decreased while his strikeout rate increased by nearly 5%.
Odor also struggles to hit line drives, with last season’s 17.6% his highest rate of any season. His power skills are strong but not elite, as seen by his 33 home runs in 2016 coming on 27.6 xHR. I think Odor will have some value to fantasy owners because of his power, but I have a hard time seeing him reach the expectations of his fantasy owners and his ADP of 38. I would suggest selling high while you can.
Regret
I only drafted three leagues this year, since I don’t enjoy the game as much when I can’t concentrate on in-season management. Now that I’m also writing about fantasy baseball–and have two children under the age of four–three leagues seems like plenty. Unfortunately, I got the short end of the stick this year, drafting 7th in my keeper league and 9th and 11th in my two NFBC leagues. This brings me to my regret from this draft season–I never got to draft Trevor Story or Freddie Freeman.
I love Story and Freeman’s batted ball profiles and potential, but couldn’t muster the courage to draft them so early (my latest 2nd round pick was 16th), instead opting for the safer picks. As the old addage goes: first and second round picks rarely win you fantasy titles but can certainly lose them for you. Accordingly, I ended up with a lot of Josh Donaldson and Miguel Cabrera (both very underrated by ADP in my estimation), which isn’t anything to complain about but also isn’t exciting.
Anyway, it will be interesting to watch Story and Freeman this year and see whether I end up regretting not taking the chance on them and going with my heart over my head in at least one of the drafts. I guess we’ll have to wait until the end of the season to find out.