A couple weeks ago I wrote an article recommending a handful of starting pitchers to replace DL-bound stud Corey Kluber. Since the article, all five starters have pitched pretty well and are now among the most-added starting pitchers. Here is the line of each starter, since I wrote the article on May 4:
- Alex Wood: 11 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 21K
- Nate Karns: 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 22K
- Dan Straily: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 11K
- Charlie Morton: 11.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15K
- Trevor Cahill: 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 14K
In the article, I looked at a range of underlying skills that pointed toward improved performance in the future or continued success in the case of a couple like Cahill. All five pitchers should have higher ownership rates (they range between 20%-76% ownership in Yahoo! leagues). Scoop them up if you still can.
Which pitchers will break out next?
Yesterday I looked at the starting pitcher leaders in key skill indicators over the last 30 days. I looked for names you wouldn’t expect to find among the leaders and then dug more deeply into their profiles. The following players, currently with mediocre to poor statistics thus far in 2017, show promise for improving their performance over the coming weeks and months:
The Next Starting Pitcher Breakouts
Underlying skills over last 30 days show promise for better days aheadSwStr % (rank) | O-swing % | Contact % | Hard hit % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
J. Montgomery | 12.7% (13) | 32.4% (19) | 72.2% (10) | 20.7% (2) |
T. Anderson | 13.7% (7) | 29.4% (39) | 71.6% (9) | 27.5% (21) |
Perdomo | 11.5% (21) | 38.7% (2) | 76.0% (24) | 22.4% (3) |
Source: Fangraphs.com
Jordan Montgomery (12% owned in Yahoo!)
Montgomery has impressed since his call-up earlier in the season with the Yankees, although his stats don’t necessarily show it. In the past month he’s been in the top 20 among qualified starting pitchers in a number of key skills that point to solid strikeout potential. He’s also shown elite skills at limiting opposition hard hit rates, posting the second best number across baseball in the past 30 days.
Montgomery’s BABIP of .316 reflects some bad luck, since his BABIP is much higher than his xBABIP of .277. While Montgomery needs to work on his command (3.93 BB/9), the signs exist for improved outcomes when his luck turns.
Tyler Anderson (16% owned in Yahoo!)
I loved Anderson coming into the season, but he’s gotten off to a rocky start. The long ball has hurt him, as Anderson’s given up 10 home runs in only 42 innings (2.14 HR/9). Surprisingly, Anderson’s underlying skills have actually improved. His strikeout rate has increased (9.00 K/9) and, despite an increased walk rate (3.00 BB/9), he’s actually throwing a higher percentage of pitches in the zone and continues to throw 64% of first pitches for strikes.
Anderson demonstrates all the skills you want to see from a starting pitcher and he has started to limit hard contact over the past month of the season after his slow start. Once the HR/9 comes down to Earth (his 10 home runs are a bit unlucky, since they come on 7.7 xHR), he has shown the skills to take the next step in his development.
Luis Perdomo (4% owned in Yahoo!)
Perdomo flew under my radar until a recent question from a Twitter follower led me to research him more deeply. His ERA and WHIP hide the large gains he has made in some key skills, including missing bats and inducing ground balls at a 70.5% clip. Pitching for the Padres limits Perdomo’s opportunity for wins, but I prefer to chase skills instead of chasing wins.
Perdomo has limited damage from opposing hitters by keeping the ball on the ground, keeping it in the yard (0.52 HR/9) and limiting overall hard contact. His 23.2% hard hit rate this season would rank third in baseball, if he had enough innings to qualify (he has only thrown 34.1). The other two pitchers in front of him are fellow two-seam studs Dallas Keuchel and Andrew Triggs.
Perdomo’s luck has hurt him so far. He has a low strand rate (65.6%), despite the higher strikeout rate and low home run total, and his BABIP of .344 is a little higher than his xBABIP of .320. In addition to limiting fly balls, Perdomo has only allowed a 13.7% line drive rate. He’s keeping hitters from elevating the ball and doing damage.
If the performance continues, Perdomo could join teammate Trevor Cahill as a valuable asset for fantasy owners.