Today was the type of day you enjoy as a fantasy analyst. Over the past few months I’ve shared my thoughts on some key players and, for the most part, I’ve had decent success thus far (Thanks, Jake Lamb!). In some instances, I haven’t (here’s looking at you Tyler Anderson). Either way, I really enjoy the analysis and research and the opportunity to help other fantasy owners.
Anyways, today a lot of my guys came through. Matt Wieters, who appeared in my bold predictions and about whom I wrote my second article, hit two home runs. Shin-Soo Choo continues to rebound after a slow start. Domingo Santana hit two home runs after I posted this. Needless to say, I was fired up. Partially because of how I felt about the players, but also because of the people who follow me who have placed their trust in my opinions. It’s a small group, but my goal is to help people and, when my analysis proves accurate, I’m doing that. It’s a long season, though, and I could still be very wrong.
I’m trying something new today. I’m debuting a new weekly column that differs from my longer, more in-depth articles and provides quick thoughts on players who have come up in my research. Let me know what you think in the comments or in your tweets. Here we go!
- If you are looking for someone to replace Adam Eaton or to target for a trade as a buy-low, Domingo Santana has had a slow start but the skills are improving and he’s due. His BABIP sits at .196 and his xBABIP is now at .440. His luck should turn soon.
- Jose Bautista’s low contact rate to start the season had me worried, he’s been turning it on recently. You can still probably buy-low on the Blue Jays outfielder, since his stats are still way down. As this graph shows, he’s starting to put it together. I would also expect the power to return soon, since he continues to hit the ball hard in the air yet his home run to fly ball rate is only 3.4% (career 16.5%).
- Before Matt Wieters went off this afternoon, I was planning to suggest hopping on his bandwagon before it’s too late. Well, it may be too late. Wieters has been okay heading into today, but the signs were there for a breakout. First, he continues to demonstrate excellent plate discipline (11.4% walk rate), his contact rate is up and his pull rate and fly ball rate are both at career highs (I wrote about this in the pre-season here) and trending upward the past two weeks. I love what I’m seeing. If only he could get out of the 7 or 8 spot in the lineup.
- As I wrote earlier, Shin-Soo Choo was unlucky last season. The skills actually looked better underneath the mediocre stat line. This season the skills don’t look as good, but they are improving. They start with elite plate discipline (16.9% walk rate), which translates thus far to a .398 OBP. His hard hit rate is trending up, which I expect to continue since he’s posting elite low soft contact rates. My guess is he’s getting his timing back after a missing a lot of time with injury (just a guess, don’t know for sure).
- I wrote four articles last week:
- The Most Interesting Man in Baseball in 2017 about Paul Goldschmidt and the interesting skills underlying his early season start
- Lucky hitters to start 2017
- Avisail Garcia
- Starlin Castro
- Xander Bogaerts
- Unlucky hitters to start 2017
- Todd Frazier – he’s since had a strong week
- Hanley Ramirez – he’s since had a strong week
- James McCann
- Add Domingo Santana to that list
- Unlucky pitchers to start 2017
- Yovani Gallardo
- Marcus Stroman – he’s since had a great 10K start
- Rick Porcello
- I didn’t have time at the moment to write the fourth–lucky pitchers. But here are a few I’d suggest selling high on:
- Wade Miley: Nothing in the skill set supports the increased strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate is up 0.3% but his strikeout rate is up by more than 3Ks per nine innings. His walk rate has nearly doubled. He hasn’t been hurt yet because of a .189 BABIP (on .257 xBABIP) and 85.0% strand rate, neither of which are sustainable. Don’t be caught starting him when the performance catches up with the skills.
- Yu Darvish: He’s still a solid pitcher, but the skills aren’t spectacular like you (or I) expected. His strikeout rate is down and his walks are up. Most concerning, opposing batters are making more contact on pitches both inside and outside the zone. They are also making harder contact than every before (36.2%), including on fly balls. Someone asked me last week if I’d trade James Paxton for him straight up and I said yes.
- Kendall Graveman: Opposing batters are hitting the ball harder, making contact more often and his ground ball rate is down as well. The .239 BABIP won’t last, particularly with that defense.