Everybody has the players they like and the players they don’t. Some people love and hate, others are bearish and bullish or just up and down. I’m going to go with my flips and my flops, the players I see as great picks in your fantasy drafts based on value and the players I would pass on based on their current average draft positions (ADPs). Here’s the first installment, focused on starting pitchers.
In terms of process, I tried to look for pitchers who may have gotten unlucky last year with above average BABIPs and below average strand rates (LOB%). I then tried to narrow the field by looking at pitchers that displayed skills that limit offensive production, like high strikeout and low walk rates (K-BB%), high ground ball rates (GB%) and low exit velocity on all types of batted balls. Here we go!
3 Flips
1. Aaron Nola (220)
Nola was incredible early on in 2016, coming out of nowhere (from a fantasy perspective) to make a case for most valuable fantasy pitcher during the first two months of the season. He ran into a combination of terrible luck (what else do you call a .528 BABIP in June?) and injuries that derailed his season, but the underlying numbers are still a thing of beauty.
Aaron Nola's Only Problem Is Luck
LOB % | BABIP | GB% | K-BB% | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola | 60.6% | .334 | 55.2% | 19.1% |
Phillies | 70.5% | .304 | 41.0% | 13.5% |
MLB | 72.9% | .298 | 44.7% | 13.0% |
(Source: Fangraphs)
Nola does nearly everything a pitcher can do to limit offensive production–he strikes people out and doesn’t walk batters, keeps the ball on the ground, limits home runs (0.8 HR/9) and induces weak contact (average exit velocity of 87.6mph and 2.5% barrel rate). Where he struggled in 2016 was with luck. In both BABIP and LOB%, Nola did far worse than both league and team averages. While luck is debatable on his BABIP (xStats has Nola at an .331 xBABIP while his team adjusted BABIP* is .300), the LOB% seems unlucky, as Nola finished second to last in LOB% among pitchers with 100+ IP. Health is the only thing Nola needs to get lucky with in 2017 to be a steal in fantasy drafts, since stats that match his skills will make him a star.
*team adjusted BABIP is discussed at length at the end of a previous post
2. James Paxton (205)
Writing about Paxton as a breakout pitcher in 2017 is nothing new, so I’ll keep this relatively brief, but the message doesn’t seem to be getting through to fantasy owners (he did move up 4 places in ADP over the course of this article, though). Paxton is still going late in drafts, despite superstar potential. Let’s take a peek:
James Paxton Is Undervalued
LOB % | BABIP | GB% | K-BB% | |
---|---|---|---|---|
James Paxton | 66.3% | .347 | 48.1% | 18.2% |
Mariners | 74.9% | .292 | 41.0% | 14.0% |
MLB | 72.9% | .298 | 44.7% | 13.0% |
(Source: Fangraphs)
Paxton, like Nola, does a lot of things a pitcher can to limit the ability of hitters to do damage. He keeps the ball on the ground, walks less than two batters a game and has demonstrated an ability to keep the ball in the yard both in 2016 and throughout his career (0.67 HR/9 and 8.2% HR/FB in 2016 compared to 0.88 HR/9 and a 9.0% HR/FB in his career). Last year’s numbers may look unsustainable, but I would only expect a little regression given the career totals. Paxton put up strong numbers in 2016 but still got unlucky, with a BABIP well-above league and team averages. xStats.org (.318 xBABIP) and team adjusted BABIP (.299 BABIP) are in agreement there, while Paxton most likely suffered from poor luck on the low LOB%. If Paxton can limit any regression on the long ball and post BABIPs and LOB% in line with league averages, he should produce great value at such a late position in drafts.
3. Daniel Norris (308)
I’m going to take a little different approach to Norris, since I didn’t use the same process and criteria to identify him as an undervalued starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. Instead, Norris caught my eye last year as a strong streaming option toward the end of last season. He put up a September to remember for fantasy owners looking for a late-season flier:
Daniel Norris' September to Remember
ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K-BB% | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Daniel Norris (2016) | 3.38 | 1.40 | 9.22 | 16.2% |
Norris (September) | 2.73 | 1.11 | 11.53 | 24.6% |
(Source: Fangraphs)
One month is a small sample size and I obviously don’t think Norris will be able to replicate his September across an entire season, but what excites me about Norris is that his September came after clear adjustments in his approach. In September, Norris started throwing his four-seam fastball a lot more (62% of his pitches compared to 42% in July) and also saw an increase in velocity on the pitch (94.7mph compared to 93.22 mph in August) to go along with a 1.5mph increase in his slider from earlier in the season.
Eno Sarris wrote about the change in Norris’ slider at the end of last year and how it may have helped him turn a corner and New English D has a more in depth look at the pitch. Anytime you are included in the same article as Justin Verlander (twice!), it’s generally a good thing, and it looks like Norris is modeling his approach after Verlander’s by throwing his four-seamer high and hard and complimenting it with a hard slider that he can control down in the zone. Either way, his September is enough for me to take a shot on a player that may go undrafted in many mixed leagues.
4. Bonus: Tyler Anderson (377)
3 Flops
I’ll use a similar process and criteria to look at players who may have overperformed their underlying stats last year (low BABIPs and high LOB%) and who I feel are overvalued in 2017 fantasy baseball drafts as a result. I’ll also include the names of pitchers I think have more value and comparable skill sets.
1. Jon Lester (38)
Lester had a career year in his age-32 season, putting up a career high in categories fantasy owners will love: ERA, WHIP and wins. A closer look raises some questions about the sustainability of his production, both because of a low BABIP and high LOB% but also numbers that are trending in the wrong direction.
Downward Trend for Jon Lester?
LOB % | BABIP | GB% | K-BB% | HR/9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lester (2016) | 84.9% | .256 | 46.9% | 18.2% | 0.93 |
Lester (2015) | 71.8% | .301 | 48.9% | 19.3% | 0.70 |
2016 +/- | +13.1% | -.045 | -2.0% | -1.1% | +0.23 |
(Source: Fangraphs)
Lester’s BABIP of .256 seems low, but it’s right in line with the Cubs team average in 2016. That said, it remains to be seen how sustainable the Cubs’ insanely low BABIP was in 2016, when they finished nearly .027 ahead of the next best defensive team (Blue Jays). Where regression seems most likely is in an inflated 84.9% LOB%, which was best in the league among starters with more than 100 IP last season. Most of Lester’s peripherals are also headed in the wrong direction, as 2016 saw a drop in strikeouts and an increase in walks and home runs (both HR/9 and HR/FB). You also have to wonder how Lester will adjust to losing his personal catcher, David Ross, to retirement as well as find the same regular season motivation after the Cubs’ historic championship. It’s not that I don’t like Lester as a solid fantasy option with a limited recent injury history, I just have a hard time spending my third or fourth round pick on him. Wait a couple more rounds and pick up a Chris Archer (57) or wait even longer for Kenta Maeda (103) or Steven Matz (169).
2. Justin Verlander (45)
Verlander had a major rebound in 2016 after a terrible 2015 that had many people believing his time as a fantasy superstar were over. His numbers in 2016 were impressive but they were helped out considerably by a BABIP well below the Tigers team BABIP against. He also stranded runners at a very high rate, finishing 11th among qualified starters with a 79.9% LOB%, which is well above both team and the league averages. More concerning is that hitters actually hit the ball harder against Verlander this year than in years past. Both his hard hit % and HR/FB were the highest they’ve been in 9 and 10 years, respectively. This comes at the same time that Verlander saw his FB% hit a career high of 47.7%. Not surprisingly, his HR/9 was a career high of 1.19.
Verlander’s season was really a season of two halfs–the first, in which he put up solid but unspectacular numbers, and the second, in which he pitched like a right-handed Clayton Kershaw. The major difference between the two halfs appears to be the velocity on his breaking pitches, as his slider and curveball both gained about 2mph over the second half of the season. The result was an increase in K/9 up to 10.93 in the 2nd half and better control (1.96 BB/9). In a lot of ways, however, the batted ball profile stayed the same for hitters when they did make contact.
Jusatin Verlander: A Tale of Two Halfs
LD% | GB% | FB% | Hard % | BABIP | LOB% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Verlander (1st Half) | 18.4% | 35.8% | 45.9% | 28.4% | .275 | 72.7% |
Verlander (2nd Half) | 18.8% | 31.2% | 50.0% | 29.7% | .229 | 90.9% |
2nd Half +/- | +0.4% | -4.6% | +4.1% | +1.3% | -0.46 | +18.2% |
(Source: Fangraphs)
Verlander was certainly a better pitcher in the second half. At an ADP of 45 that’s what fantasy owners are paying for, but Verlander’s BABIP and LOB% in the second half seem unsustainable. He has a worrying trend of increases in both FB% and HR/FB%, a dangerous combination. Taking into account all of the above, I’d expect solid number, but not production worthy of your 45th pick. Wait a bit and take Carlos Carrasco (59), Jacob deGrom (74) or even take a chance on Jon Gray (180) to boost your K/9.
3. Danny Duffy (109)
Duffy was a waiver wire wonder in 2016, posting superlative numbers in the first half of the season before tapering off in the second. What concerns me most about Duffy has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with getting hit really, really hard. How hard? His 36.6% hard hit rate was seventh worst among starters with 100+IP in 2016. It all started in July when he lost about 2mph on all of his pitches.
The impact of the drop in velocity is pretty clear in his second half numbers, which should frighten any fantasy owners thinking of taking him at his current ADP. Of all starting pitchers in the second half of the season with 50+IP, Duffy finished second to last with his 40.6% hard hit percentage.
Danny Duffy Got Hit Hard
LD% | HR/9 | Soft % | Hard % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Duffy (1st Half) | 20.2% | 1.21 | 23.7% | 31.3% |
Duffy (2nd Half) | 21.4% | 1.47 | 13.4% | 40.6% |
(Source: Fangraphs)
Duffy’s issues with hard contact and high fly ball percentage resulted in Duffy having a home run problem, as his HR/9 spiked to 1.47 in the second half. Whether or not he can regain his velocity and approach his first half numbers remains to be seen, but instead of using a draft pick on Duffy to find out, fantasy owners would be better served waiting to select Rich Hill (135), Dallas Keuchel (144) or Matt Moore (180).