Early this week I’ve shared some buy-low options for fantasy owners on twitter. In putting together the list, I looked at players with large positive differences between their actual performance and their underlying skills through both batted ball profile analysis and expected stats (xstats.org).
The following players stood out as great buy lows–guys I feel confident will improve their performance significantly over the course of the season.
(Note: I pulled the stats together over the course of a few days, so take note of the date through which the stats are current at the bottom of each table.)
Miguel Cabrera
Miggy has gotten off to an uncharacteristically slow start. At very few times in his career has he put together a month and a half of poor performance. Not surprisingly, this has fantasy owners concerned.
Miggy: Buy Low
Stats vs. Expected StatsAVG | OBP | SLG | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats* | .248 | .339 | .422 | 5 |
2017 xStats | .308 | .394 | .645 | 9.2 |
+/- | +.060 | +.055 | +.223 | +4.2 |
*Stats through 5/20/17
Source: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
Thankfully, Miggy’s expected stats–based on exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball–show that he has gotten very unlucky so far in 2017. Miggy’s Statcast batted ball data tells a similar story, as he has hit the ball harder this year than last.
Miggy: Buy Low
Statcast Batted BallExit Velo FB/LD | 95+ MPH | Barrels/PA | |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 97.0 | 50.6% | 11.3% |
2017 | 98.9 | 57.0% | 9.9% |
+/- | +1.9 | +6.4% | -2.4% |
Source: Baseball Savant
Because his stats have underperformed his skills, Miggy represents a tremendous buy-low opportunity. Additional skills Miggy has shown should provide hope to his fantasy owners (or those fantasy owners savvy enough to take advantage).
His hard hit rate is higher than any previous season at 48.1% and his hard hit rate on fly balls is at an elite 55.5%. He has a 102.9 mph average exit velocity on “hard drives” (as categorized by xStats), which are batted balls between 19 and 26 degrees of launch angle (the launch angle that produces the highest wOBA per batted ball).
Miggy’s increased strikeout rate has some fantasy owners concerned, but all of the drop comes from a drop in contact on pitches outside the zone. A number of explanations exist for the drop, from small sample sizes to his early season injuries, but it’s hard to see it representing a decline in skills when all of his other batted ball data points toward an improvement over past years. Buy now.
Kendrys Morales
Morales has also struggled to start 2017, so much so that his ownership rate in Yahoo! leagues is a low 73%. The Blue Jays cleanup hitter has hit the ball pretty well so far in 2017, but doesn’t have as much to show for it as he and his fantasy owners hoped when they drafted him.
Kendrys Morales: Buy Low
Stats vs. Expected StatsAVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BABIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats* | .244 | .297 | .419 | 7 | .264 |
2017 xStats | .309 | .360 | .541 | 8.2 | .348 |
+/- | +.065 | +.063 | +.122 | +1.2 | +.084 |
*Stats through 5/21/17
Source: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
As shown above, Morales’ underlying batted ball skills reflect a much higher level of performance across the board. The difference between BABIP and xBABIP is a major culprit, so hopefully luck will swing Morales’s way.
Kendrys Morales: Buy Low
Statcast Batted BallExit Velo FB/LD | 95+ MPH | Barrels/PA | |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 96.3 | 49.9% | 7.8% |
2017 | 95.9 | 46.1% | 7.0% |
+/- | -0.4 | -3.8% | -0.8% |
Source: Baseball Savant
While Morales’ Statcast batted ball data shows his performance declining since last year, the numbers still reflect a strong batted ball profile. All of the exit velocity and barrel numbers are well above league average.
Morales has another factor weighing heavily in his favor–the return of Josh Donaldson. If Morales stays in the cleanup spot, he will have three OBP studs batting in front of him (Pillar, Bautista and Donaldson). It wouldn’t surprise me if Morales lands among the league leaders in plate appearances with runners on base from Donaldson’s return until the end of the season.
Finally, while Kendrys hits far too many ground balls (48.4%) for a power hitter, he has cut his pop up rate and increased his hard drive rate this year, which helps explain the strong xBABIP. His hard hit rate of 47.7% on fly ball is strong and he has pulled a higher percentage of fly balls than in past seasons. In other words, he has made more of his fly balls in 2017 than previous seasons.
Morales should come at a decent discount and fantasy owners should take advantage.
Stephen Piscotty
Piscotty returned from the DL on May 20. Prior to the DL stint, Piscotty struggled to hit for power early in the season after slugging a solid 22 home runs in his first full season in 2016. The slow start, coupled with the DL stint, may create an opening for fantasy owners to buy low.
Stephen Piscotty: Buy Low
Stats vs. Expected StatsAVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BABIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats* | .247 | .381 | .376 | 2 | .292 |
2017 xStats | .301 | .426 | .481 | 2.9 | .355 |
+/- | +.054 | +.025 | +.105 | +0.9 | +.063 |
*Stats through 5/21/17
Source: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
Piscotty’s OBP jumps out in both the table and among the underlying skills. The Cardinals rightfielder has nearly doubled his walk rate in 2017 (up 7.3% to 15.2%) and the 7.7% decrease in his swing rate on pitches outside the zone supports the increase. The improved plate discipline hasn’t hurt his batted balls skills–all of his Statcast and expected stats show improvement over his breakout in 2016.
Stephen Piscotty: Buy Low
Statcast Batted BallExit Velo FB/LD | 95+ MPH | Barrels/PA | |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 92.8 | 37.8% | 6.0% |
2017 | 93.7 | 41.8% | 6.7% |
+/- | +0.9 | +4.0% | +0.7% |
Source: Baseball Savant
While the sample size is small because of the DL stint, virtually every skill indicator demonstrates a jump in performance level. Pisctotty’s has increased his hard hit rate by 5.2% and his pull rate by 4.0%. The most exciting improved skill for fantasy owners may be the 25.6% jump in hard hit fly ball rate, up to an elite 66.7%.
Piscotty could take the next step in his power development if his home run to fly ball rate catches up to league average rates. Right now only 12.5% of Piscotty’s hard hit fly balls have gone for home runs compared to a 33.1% league average and only 20% of his hard hit pulled fly balls have gone for home runs compared to 62.7% league average.
Hopefully Piscotty can maintain the skills he showed prior to his DL stint upon his return. If he does, he represents a great buy low opportunity.
Brian Dozier
Dozier broke out in a major way in 2016 and many people doubted his ability to replicate his 42 home runs in 2017. Dozier hasn’t lit the world on fire this season, contributing below the expectations of fantasy owners across stat categories with the possible exception of his seven stolen bases.
Brian Dozier: Buy Low
Stats vs. Expected StatsAVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BABIP | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 Stats* | .231 | .331 | .385 | 5 | .255 |
2017 xStats | .276 | .374 | .482 | 8.3 | .317 |
+/- | +.045 | +.043 | +.097 | +3.3 | +.062 |
*Stats through 5/20/17
Source: Fangraphs.com and xStats.org
Dozier’s expected stats line points to better days ahead. The Twins second baseman has actually displayed a slightly different approach in his batted ball profile that should boost his average, if he maintains the new skills. Both Dozier’s line drive, ground ball and hard drive rates are up, which help explain the .317 xBABIP (career .271) and the solid expected batting average.
Brian Dozier: Buy Low
Statcast Batted BallExit Velo FB/LD | 95+ MPH | Barrels/PA | |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 94.2 | 36.6% | 5.8% |
2017 | 94.5 | 37.4% | 5.8% |
+/- | +0.3 | +0.8% | 0.0% |
Source: Baseball Savant
The power numbers have disappointed as well. Outside the large dip in fly ball rate (a concern for those expecting another 42 home runs), however, nothing in the batted ball profile explains the low 10.9% home run to fly ball rate. Dozier’s exit velocity numbers (and hard hit rate) are better in 2017 than 2016. His hard hit rate on fly balls is 2.0% higher at 41.5%, as is his exit velocity on fly balls at launch angles between 26 and 39 degrees (96.8 mph).
Dozier’s increased walk rate (11.6%), supported by a drop in swing rate, should result in ample opportunity to score runs once his BABIP luck turns for the better and his average and OBP hopefully reach the levels of the underlying skills.
Dozier should turn around his season in short order. He represents a terrific buy low opportunity who can produce solid numbers in all five standard 5 x 5 categories.
Other Buy-lows
I am high on a few other underperforming players, including (in no particular order) Edwin Encarnacion, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, Todd Frazier, Carlos Santana, Jarrod Dyson and Hanley Ramirez.