Longoria has left many of his fantasy owners disappointed with the return on their investment in 2017. After he re-broke out (is that thing?) last year with 36 home runs, Longoria only has 6 home runs (on 7.1 xHR) and a .237 batting average to show his owners for their faith in drafting him.
Is this new lower level of power and overall production a result of diminishing skills or just bad luck?
Batted Ball Profile
The major problems for Longoria and his fantasy owners this season stem from too many ground balls. The Rays third baseman has had a fly ball rate above 40% every season in the majors, but it currently sits at just 32.7%. His ground ball rate of 47.2% is about 10% above his career average and his average launch angle is down 8.1°. If Longoria’s ground ball to fly ball ratio stays at 1.44 (it’s current level), it would be the only time Longoria has had the ratio above 1.00 (technically 0.96).
Plate Discipline and Contact
Longoria’s approach at the plate does not appear to have changed as drastically as his fly ball to ground ball rate. The percentage of pitches outside the zone he swings at continues to creep up and currently sits at 35.7%. While far from ideal, the percentage is only 1.9% higher than where he finished 2016. What might concern fantasy owners a little more is the combination of increased chase rate outside the zone with an increase in overall swing rate to 50.1%. Whatever plate discipline Longoria had (last year’s 6.1% walk rate was a career low) continues to fade.
Evan Longoria
Plate Discipline and Contact SkillsO-swing % | Swing % | O-contact % | Z-contact % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 35.6% | 50.1% | 68.6% | 85.8% |
2016 | 33.7% | 48.8% | 62.6% | 83.2% |
Career | 28.0% | 45.1% | 62.5% | 84.9% |
Source: Fangraphs
Surprisingly, Longoria has made more contact despite the regression in plate discipline. Both his contact rate outside the zone and inside the zone are up and his swinging strike rate is down. Unfortunately, Longoria has not made any better contact than past seasons. One explanation for the increased ground ball rate: Longoria has made more contact on bad pitches outside the zone and turned that contact into weak ground balls instead of missing them and having another opportunity to hit a better pitch.
Contact Quality
The quality of Longoria’s contact–like the increased ground ball rate–is a major area of concern. Longoria’s average exit velocity at key launch angles has fallen considerably from last season.
Before I get into the exit velocity concerns, one major launch angle issue for Longoria (and not a surprising one given his increased ground balls) is a 12.7% increase in the percentage of balls in play under 0° (25.0% of balls in play to 37.7% of balls in play) over last season. In other words, 37.7% of Longoria’s batted balls go down into the ground. Not only that, but the exit velocity on those batted balls has fallen 5.7 mph to 79.6 mph. Longoria is not fast and very few are likely going for hits.
Evan Longoria
Exit velocity at key launch anglesUnder 0° | 10° to 19° | 19° to 26° | 26° to 39° | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 79.6 | 93.3 | 91.6 | 95.2 |
2016 | 85.3 | 96.8 | 94.8 | 94.1 |
2017 +/- | -5.7 | -3.5 | -3.2 | +1.1 |
Source: xStats.org (from “Batter Lookup” tab, type in player name)
As the table above shows, Longoria has seen about a 3 mph drop in exit velocity on both “line drives” (10° to 19°) and “hard drives” (19° to 26°), as defined by xStats. The decrease on hard drives represents the most significant drop, since this launch angle produces the greatest offensive output per batted ball (measured in wOBA). The dip in exit velocity at this launch angle for Longoria could be the difference between a home run and a double or fly out.
When you’re struggling, even the good news is bad news. Longoria has increased his exit velocity by 1.1 mph on fly balls between 26° and 39° (the launch angle that produces the most home runs). Unfortunately, he has hit only 10.1% of his batted balls at this launch angle after hitting 18.8% of his batted balls last season.
Other Red Flags
One additional red flag for Longoria comes by way of his struggles this season against the fastball. Longoria has traditionally crushed fastballs, posting a .683 slugging percentage in 2016 against fourseam fastballs and .525 in 2015. In 2017 he has slugged .379. Whether the struggles against fastballs are just a product of small sample sizes or another sign of Longoria’s bat slowing down, it represents another area of concern for fantasy owners.
Conclusion
Plenty of time still exists for Longoria to turn things around and he has a long career we can point toward in justifying a potential turnaround. Predicting when the permanent dropoff will occur has stymied many fantasy owners and 31 years seems a bit early for Longoria. Still, such a drastic change in his batted ball profile and contact quality raises questions about a possible injury or, worse, his bat slowing down.
While Longoria’s plate discipline hasn’t changed drastically, small regressions over the past couple years may have caught up with him. I would caution fantasy owners from expecting a turnaround from Longoria or targeting him as a buy low until he shows signs of righting the ship by increasing his fly ball rate and exit velocities on key launch angles.
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